Short answer is 'Yes'.
While O'Neill is busy issuing press statements his Government is intact and he is confident of defeating a vote of no confidence, the fact is he is desperate and will do everything he can to avoid it.
It is beyond a question of doubt that if a vote was held tomorrow O'Neill will be voted out. So his only chance to stay in power is to avoid the process. Something he is renowned for, from when he stole the Prime Minister seat from Michael Somare to avoiding arrest. He avoided the process when he directed the payment of K71.8 million to Paul Paraka, signing of UBS Loan, purchase of GE Generators etc etc.
So you can bet your last kina he will avoid the process of a vote of no confidence.
So what are his options?
Firstly, O'Neill may try to obtain a interim stay (stop order) from the Supreme Court, preventing the Speaker and Parliament from moving a vote of no confidence against him until it deals with his Supreme Court reference. I be wouldn't be surprise if his lawyers have already filed it. It's my view the entire proceedings were filed for this very purpose.
It will be interesting to see if the Court grants O'Neill such a stay. It is no secret members of the public are losing confidence in our judiciary - firstly over the perceived delay in handing down decisions on high-profile cases and secondly, decisions the public simply fail to understand.
It doesn't help when one hears rumors of politicians claiming to have the judiciary in their pocket. I personally still have faith in our judiciary but I won't lie, I have received a number of disturbing claims coming out of corridors of Wagaini in relation to judicial corruption. An issue I will discuss in some detail in a later article.
Now assuming O'Neill's first option fails or abandoned his next option will be to manipulate the process by preventing a notice of motion of confidence being tabled on the floor of Parliament. A practice that was adopted in the past before the Supreme Court directed Speaker and Parliament convene to table in 2016.
Votes of no confidence against the Prime Minister are provided for by law under Section 145 of Constitution. It states any motion calling for a vote of no confidence must be supported by no less than 12 Members of Parliament (Opposition has 24 Members so no problem meeting this requirement) It must name the alternative Prime Minister and be tabled in accordance with the standing orders of Parliament. (standing orders are procedures in how Parliament conducts its business/meetings.
Standing Orders 130 of Parliament states a notice of motion of vote of no confidence shall be treated as a private notice of motion (private meaning where an individual member proposes a motion to Parliament).
It must be signed by the Member of Parliament who is proposing it (mover) as well as a second member who supports it (seconder)
The notice of motion must then be submitted to the Private Business Committee Chairman, which is Speaker of Parliament.
Private Business Committee is a Parliament Committee made up of no more than 7 members of Parliament. They are tasked to screen any notices of motion proposed by individual Members of Parliament to confirm they are in order (meet the requirements) before they agree to put it on the Notice Paper (Parliament's Notice of Agenda) and tabled or moved on the floor of Parliament.
Members of the Committee include:
1) Chairman Job Pomat - Speaker (PNC)
2) Deputy Chairman Jeffrey Komal Deputy Speaker (PNC)
3) William Powi - Governor SHP (PNC)
4) Philip Undialu - Governor Hela (PNC)
5) Powes Parkop - Governor NCD (SDP)
6) Richard Masere - Member Ivijirati Open (PNC) PO loyalist
The Speaker must then table the notice at the next committee meeting which is 1pm on a Wednesday when Parliament is in session.
Should the committee fail to show up at the meeting, standing orders state the Chairman may decide himself.
The Supreme Court has already ruled the Committee does not have the powers to reject a notice of motion of vote of confidence unless it has failed to meet the requirements, (signatures etc).
So when Parliament re-convenes on Tuesday 7th May 2019 the Opposition will most definitely submit a notice of motion of no confidence against O'Neill. The notice will be given to the Speaker to table on 8th May Private Business Committee. If the committee accept it, then it will be listed on the notice paper and announced to Parliament by the Speaker. Parliament will then rise and reconvene in 7 days. The MP who proposed the motion will then move it and Parliament will vote to remove O'Neill and vote in the alternative Prime Minister.
Who will be named as the alternative Prime Minister is yet to be decided.
Speaker, Job Pomat is a God fearing man so if he presides over Parliament in the next session as well as the Committee, you can expect him to follow the lawful process.
This is why I believe O'Neill will sideline the Speaker by arranging for the Governor General to go on leave or become unavailable. By law whenever the GG is unavailable then the Speaker must act as the Acting GG.
This means the Deputy Speaker Jeffery Komal, an O'Neill loyalist, will become the Acting Speaker and chair the Private Business Committee as well as Parliament.
I don't expect Komal to accept the notice or agree to have it listed on the notice paper. I suspect he will be advised to claim the matter is before the Court so it would not be appropriate to deal with notice until the Court hands down its ruling.
So key the indicators whether or not a vote of no confidence will succeed are as follows:
1) whether O'Neill files an application seeking interim stay order
2) whether the Court grants him a stay.
3) whether Governor General mysteriously goes on leave or becomes unavailable forcing the Speaker to vacate the seat.
4) whether Deputy Speaker refuses to table the notice of motion because the matter is before the Court.
While I'm certain O'Neill is looking at ways to derail the vote of no confidence meanwhile the best minds in the Opposition are working around the clock to ensure it is tabled.
So you can bet your last kina he will avoid the process of a vote of no confidence.
So what are his options?
Firstly, O'Neill may try to obtain a interim stay (stop order) from the Supreme Court, preventing the Speaker and Parliament from moving a vote of no confidence against him until it deals with his Supreme Court reference. I be wouldn't be surprise if his lawyers have already filed it. It's my view the entire proceedings were filed for this very purpose.
It will be interesting to see if the Court grants O'Neill such a stay. It is no secret members of the public are losing confidence in our judiciary - firstly over the perceived delay in handing down decisions on high-profile cases and secondly, decisions the public simply fail to understand.
It doesn't help when one hears rumors of politicians claiming to have the judiciary in their pocket. I personally still have faith in our judiciary but I won't lie, I have received a number of disturbing claims coming out of corridors of Wagaini in relation to judicial corruption. An issue I will discuss in some detail in a later article.
Now assuming O'Neill's first option fails or abandoned his next option will be to manipulate the process by preventing a notice of motion of confidence being tabled on the floor of Parliament. A practice that was adopted in the past before the Supreme Court directed Speaker and Parliament convene to table in 2016.
Votes of no confidence against the Prime Minister are provided for by law under Section 145 of Constitution. It states any motion calling for a vote of no confidence must be supported by no less than 12 Members of Parliament (Opposition has 24 Members so no problem meeting this requirement) It must name the alternative Prime Minister and be tabled in accordance with the standing orders of Parliament. (standing orders are procedures in how Parliament conducts its business/meetings.
Standing Orders 130 of Parliament states a notice of motion of vote of no confidence shall be treated as a private notice of motion (private meaning where an individual member proposes a motion to Parliament).
It must be signed by the Member of Parliament who is proposing it (mover) as well as a second member who supports it (seconder)
The notice of motion must then be submitted to the Private Business Committee Chairman, which is Speaker of Parliament.
Private Business Committee is a Parliament Committee made up of no more than 7 members of Parliament. They are tasked to screen any notices of motion proposed by individual Members of Parliament to confirm they are in order (meet the requirements) before they agree to put it on the Notice Paper (Parliament's Notice of Agenda) and tabled or moved on the floor of Parliament.
Members of the Committee include:
1) Chairman Job Pomat - Speaker (PNC)
2) Deputy Chairman Jeffrey Komal Deputy Speaker (PNC)
3) William Powi - Governor SHP (PNC)
4) Philip Undialu - Governor Hela (PNC)
5) Powes Parkop - Governor NCD (SDP)
6) Richard Masere - Member Ivijirati Open (PNC) PO loyalist
The Speaker must then table the notice at the next committee meeting which is 1pm on a Wednesday when Parliament is in session.
Should the committee fail to show up at the meeting, standing orders state the Chairman may decide himself.
The Supreme Court has already ruled the Committee does not have the powers to reject a notice of motion of vote of confidence unless it has failed to meet the requirements, (signatures etc).
So when Parliament re-convenes on Tuesday 7th May 2019 the Opposition will most definitely submit a notice of motion of no confidence against O'Neill. The notice will be given to the Speaker to table on 8th May Private Business Committee. If the committee accept it, then it will be listed on the notice paper and announced to Parliament by the Speaker. Parliament will then rise and reconvene in 7 days. The MP who proposed the motion will then move it and Parliament will vote to remove O'Neill and vote in the alternative Prime Minister.
Who will be named as the alternative Prime Minister is yet to be decided.
Speaker, Job Pomat is a God fearing man so if he presides over Parliament in the next session as well as the Committee, you can expect him to follow the lawful process.
This is why I believe O'Neill will sideline the Speaker by arranging for the Governor General to go on leave or become unavailable. By law whenever the GG is unavailable then the Speaker must act as the Acting GG.
This means the Deputy Speaker Jeffery Komal, an O'Neill loyalist, will become the Acting Speaker and chair the Private Business Committee as well as Parliament.
I don't expect Komal to accept the notice or agree to have it listed on the notice paper. I suspect he will be advised to claim the matter is before the Court so it would not be appropriate to deal with notice until the Court hands down its ruling.
So key the indicators whether or not a vote of no confidence will succeed are as follows:
1) whether O'Neill files an application seeking interim stay order
2) whether the Court grants him a stay.
3) whether Governor General mysteriously goes on leave or becomes unavailable forcing the Speaker to vacate the seat.
4) whether Deputy Speaker refuses to table the notice of motion because the matter is before the Court.
While I'm certain O'Neill is looking at ways to derail the vote of no confidence meanwhile the best minds in the Opposition are working around the clock to ensure it is tabled.
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