The 2019 VONC – And How MPs Choose the Prime Minister.

by Bonny Kaiyo - Facebook

MPs ideally go by a measurement or standard to choose a prime minister and must leave with the decision. In PNG's parliamentary or constitutional monarchy MPs vote for the person to hold that post. In the event of a VONC the challenge is also there.

So, there must be a yardstick.

In 2016, the Opposition led by Bulolo MP Sam Basil who was then Deputy Opposition Leader to Kandep MP Don Polye navigated the hard yards to reinforce the role of the Opposition as a mechanism of checks and balance.

The PNG Constitution provides for a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister. In the aftermath of the Opposition’s failed attempt to dethrone Prime Minister Peter Oneill, the post – mortem began.

First hurdle for the Opposition. In Parliament, debates on important legislation were gagged. The government’s superior numbers helped to bulldoze legislation. But, scrutiny of harmful effects was necessary to avoid amending the legislation later.

The cost of bad legislation in PNG is clear from the example of Bougainville Crisis, fallout with landowners with PNG LNG, and now Papua LNG.

Second hurdle. In order to table a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister Peter Oneill the Parliamentary Committee on Vote of No Confidence validates the motion as a matter of process. In 2016, the Parliamentary Committee recommended among its conclusions that the motion was technically defective.

It took the Supreme Court to overrule the Parliamentary Committee’s recommendation on the fate of the motion.

The third hurdle was still there. In the debate on the VONC motion, the Speaker Theo Zurenuoc minimized the number of speakers to just 4 MPs so there were 2 each from the rank of government and Opposition.

The question was then put.

In the search for clues, here is one perspective. The VONC speech by Bulolo MP Sam Basil when he tabled the motion was seen as a weak point in the Opposition’s strategy to garner the sentiment of government MPs.

The failure to convict MPs to support the motion was only the beginning of the problem. In the 2017 NGE, the Opposition had NA on board with Pangu Pati engaging PNC ruling regime in a brutal confrontation. It was a huge victory. PNC lost 50 % of its MPs. But, was the preferred choice of the people to return to office. Of course, the issues that influenced the 50% defeat at the polls remained, money on the table.

Pangu Pati then switched sides to join the PNC ruling regime. Sam Basil looked at the PNC treasure chest.

So, the 2019 VONC is here. In economics literature Bulolo MP is the economic man. It is the rank he reached. The costs. He rationally calculated how to improve his own status defined basically as wealth he can build from access to State apparatus that flow from the choices he makes. He was first Minister for Communications. Now, Minister for Finance. https://postcourier.com.pg/marape-cites-lack-trust-prime-m…/

For now, all else including corruption allegations he made against Prime Minister Peter Oneill is forgotten. It is convenient to do so in order to maximize the number of goods he has. The fight against Prime Minister Peter Oneill since 2014 had drained him.

A statesman forever is subject to checks and balance mechanisms- testing, assessing, evaluating, and measuring- and, for him the mandate given by the people was to fight corruption and develop those characteristics necessary to complete the fight. Sam Basil became tired, put under the microscope for too long.

But, he would be a rational person making informed judgments. And, has a touch of class. May be another Peter Oneill.https://asopa.typepad.com/…/remove-peter-oneill-before-he-d…

He did not become prime minister after the 2017 NGE. But, the ideas and concepts that made him popular won. The 2019 VONC is a consequence of Bulolo MP Sam Basil’s project to offer PNG something better going forward.

Among the spin and negative reviews on Sam Basil by commentators on social media were these two(unedited):

(1) Alexander Palai:

‘Opposition will give their votes to Sam Basil. He has 16, making him the 2nd biggest group in O'Neill gov't. How many does Marape have, nobody knows yet.
We have a highlands PM who is sinking this country because of his highlands "big man mentality". Basil will therefore become the next Prime Minister.’

(2) Naith N. Lati replied:

‘Bias and domesticated racism commentary’

An alternate prime minister decided by racial demographics is irrational. But, may be the only card left to play.

The rational option is also there. If Parliament was dissolved today, James Marape and Davies Stevens will distance themselves from PNC and face the people as independents. Both behaved in a predictable manner. https://postcourier.com.pg/steven-avoids-opposition/

MPs may or may not be guided by the laws of thought that come down to 3 axioms. All data is reduced to fundamental laws as follows:

(1) The Law of Identity: Whatever is, is; or, in a more precise form, Every A is A.

(2) The Law of Contradiction: Nothing can both be and not be; Nothing can be A and not A.

(3) The Law of Excluded Middle: Everything must either be or not be; Everything is either A or not A.

It is one of the hard lessons from 2011 political impasse. The dynamics of the regime change targeting Prime Minister Peter Oneill is traced to Bulolo MP Sam Basil.http://www.pngblogs.com/…/oneill-is-no-leader-if-southern.h…

It began in 2014.

The PNC Cabinet revolt is a sign of times. Sam Basil is the man of the moment. It is also a sign of times. And, the law of thought is at play. One mistake is fatal. Ask Sam Basil.He nominated Peter Oneill for Prime Minister in 2011 at the height of the political impasse when the latter pulled off an illegal parliamentary coup. https://www.nytimes.com/…/political-impasse-in-papua-new-gu…

NA ruling regime was thrown out of office. Then, called Peter Oneill names after 2012 NGE.

He joined Peter Oneill in the wake of 2017 NGE. And, is now Minister for Finance.

So, MPs choose the Prime Minister. There are two options, the standard, 'New Guinea Style': (1) based on conviction; and, (2) convenience. But, the laws of thought define the truth.

There must be a yardstick to choose PNG's next Prime Minister. If, a VONC materializes in weeks from now.

Bulolo MP Sam Basil whipped the wrong horse to the finishing line. Pangu Pati is dead. Our Party suddenly appears from no where, cooked up. And, he is riding it without a mandate from the people to do so. https://postcourier.com.pg/pangu-pati-falling/

In PNG, the land of the unexpected anyone can be Prime Minister. Peter Oneill had only 5 MPs in the embryo PNC Party in 2011 when he was voted to be Prime Minister. Sam Basil is a one - man Our Party leader. He has become a skillful statecraft artist. The finishing line is close.

(Photo Caption: The Laws of Thought - define the truth; PNC Cabinet revolt - after 7 years at the top; Ministers fell out with PM Peter Oneill - former Treasurer Don Polye, former SOE Minister Ben Micah, former Finance Minister James Marape, and former Attorney - General Davies Stevens; Bulolo MP Sam Basil - man of the moment, another Peter Oneill?)

The new Prime Minister could be Sam Basil or James Marabe.

A change of Prime Ministership is imminent due to high profile resignation of cabinet ministers and open expression of disgruntedness by resource owner government backbenchers. 

We were too human to jump to conclusions and judge Sam Basil's actions in taking his Pangu faction into government after being O'niel's number 1 enemy. O'niel maybe foolish enough to see this one coming so he totally believed Basil and accomodated him.

Now that more than half of ruling PNC members have withdrawn support for Peter O'niel and wanted to see change.

Prime Minister seat can only remain with PNC,(; James Marape being best candidate) if a change of party leadership at PNC done before May 5th.

If no leadership change is seen within PNC into VONC day, Sam Basil is ideal candidate for PM seat . Marape and other defecting PNC members can settle for Deputy PM and some Ministeries while NA , a bigger coalition partner from opposition can be accommodated senior economic Ministries.

24 Opposition members gave their word already that none from them wants to be PM.
That leaves the PM seat between PNC (James Marape & Pangu Sam Basil).

The current numbers estimations are:
1. Opposition 24 +
2. PNC defections 25 +
3. Pangu 16
4. Smaller parties 8
= 73 (estimates)
Let's count down from now to May 5th.
God bless PNG.👋😊

PNG's oldest political party PANGU is dumped by parliamentary party leader Hon. Sam Basil

Pangu Pati, the oldest political party in Papua New Guinea, may be without a parliamentary wing leader within weeks as Sam Basil is believed to be preparing to desert them.

Mr Basil, who was made Finance Minister in the Peter O’Neill-led government last week, has formed a new political party called “Our Party”. And he plans to take all 14 members of Pangu with him when he formally announces the establishment of the new party.

Mr Basil has not responded to questions about the composition of Our Party but Pangu Pati executives told the Post-Courier yesterday that Mr Basil was no longer part of Pangu and that the party is looking for a new party leader.

Pangu Pati president Patrick Pundau said yesterday that Pangu was aware of the new party being launched and that Pangu would hold a convention anytime soon to appoint a new party leader.

“We know that Pangu now has no political party leader but we have other MPs who are in government with Sam Basil and we will hold a convention soon to get all our MPs and our party back in order,” Mr Pundau said.

Last week, the Registrar of Political Parties and Candidates Dr Alphonse Gelu confirmed that Mr Basil and his team had paid the K10,000 fee but had not submitted documents for formal registration of Our Party.

“Our Party is still going through the process of registration,” Dr Gelu said.
“They have paid the K10,000 fee but has not submitted documents for formal registration of the party.
“Launching cannot be that soon because of the time that it will take on the registration.
“How this relates to Pangu, I have no idea,” he said, adding that Mr Basil had been removed from the party but Pangu still had MPs.

The registry has not received any documents for its MPs leaving the party.

Will Prime Minister Peter O'Neill try to avoid the upcoming vote-of-no confidence?

Commentary by Hon. Bryan Kramer, MP

Short answer is 'Yes'.

While O'Neill is busy issuing press statements his Government is intact and he is confident of defeating a vote of no confidence, the fact is he is desperate and will do everything he can to avoid it. 

It is beyond a question of doubt that if a vote was held tomorrow O'Neill will be voted out. So his only chance to stay in power is to avoid the process. Something he is renowned for, from when he stole the Prime Minister seat from Michael Somare to avoiding arrest. He avoided the process when he directed the payment of K71.8 million to Paul Paraka, signing of UBS Loan, purchase of GE Generators etc etc.

So you can bet your last kina he will avoid the process of a vote of no confidence.

So what are his options?

Firstly, O'Neill may try to obtain a interim stay (stop order) from the Supreme Court, preventing the Speaker and Parliament from moving a vote of no confidence against him until it deals with his Supreme Court reference. I be wouldn't be surprise if his lawyers have already filed it. It's my view the entire proceedings were filed for this very purpose.

It will be interesting to see if the Court grants O'Neill such a stay. It is no secret members of the public are losing confidence in our judiciary - firstly over the perceived delay in handing down decisions on high-profile cases and secondly, decisions the public simply fail to understand.

It doesn't help when one hears rumors of politicians claiming to have the judiciary in their pocket. I personally still have faith in our judiciary but I won't lie, I have received a number of disturbing claims coming out of corridors of Wagaini in relation to judicial corruption. An issue I will discuss in some detail in a later article.

Now assuming O'Neill's first option fails or abandoned his next option will be to manipulate the process by preventing a notice of motion of confidence being tabled on the floor of Parliament. A practice that was adopted in the past before the Supreme Court directed Speaker and Parliament convene to table in 2016.

Votes of no confidence against the Prime Minister are provided for by law under Section 145 of Constitution. It states any motion calling for a vote of no confidence must be supported by no less than 12 Members of Parliament (Opposition has 24 Members so no problem meeting this requirement) It must name the alternative Prime Minister and be tabled in accordance with the standing orders of Parliament. (standing orders are procedures in how Parliament conducts its business/meetings.

Standing Orders 130 of Parliament states a notice of motion of vote of no confidence shall be treated as a private notice of motion (private meaning where an individual member proposes a motion to Parliament).

It must be signed by the Member of Parliament who is proposing it (mover) as well as a second member who supports it (seconder)

The notice of motion must then be submitted to the Private Business Committee Chairman, which is Speaker of Parliament.

Private Business Committee is a Parliament Committee made up of no more than 7 members of Parliament. They are tasked to screen any notices of motion proposed by individual Members of Parliament to confirm they are in order (meet the requirements) before they agree to put it on the Notice Paper (Parliament's Notice of Agenda) and tabled or moved on the floor of Parliament.

Members of the Committee include:

1) Chairman Job Pomat - Speaker (PNC)
2) Deputy Chairman Jeffrey Komal Deputy Speaker (PNC)
3) William Powi - Governor SHP (PNC)
4) Philip Undialu - Governor Hela (PNC)
5) Powes Parkop - Governor NCD (SDP)
6) Richard Masere - Member Ivijirati Open (PNC) PO loyalist

The Speaker must then table the notice at the next committee meeting which is 1pm on a Wednesday when Parliament is in session.

Should the committee fail to show up at the meeting, standing orders state the Chairman may decide himself.

The Supreme Court has already ruled the Committee does not have the powers to reject a notice of motion of vote of confidence unless it has failed to meet the requirements, (signatures etc).

So when Parliament re-convenes on Tuesday 7th May 2019 the Opposition will most definitely submit a notice of motion of no confidence against O'Neill. The notice will be given to the Speaker to table on 8th May Private Business Committee. If the committee accept it, then it will be listed on the notice paper and announced to Parliament by the Speaker. Parliament will then rise and reconvene in 7 days. The MP who proposed the motion will then move it and Parliament will vote to remove O'Neill and vote in the alternative Prime Minister.

Who will be named as the alternative Prime Minister is yet to be decided.

Speaker, Job Pomat is a God fearing man so if he presides over Parliament in the next session as well as the Committee, you can expect him to follow the lawful process.

This is why I believe O'Neill will sideline the Speaker by arranging for the Governor General to go on leave or become unavailable. By law whenever the GG is unavailable then the Speaker must act as the Acting GG.

This means the Deputy Speaker Jeffery Komal, an O'Neill loyalist, will become the Acting Speaker and chair the Private Business Committee as well as Parliament.

I don't expect Komal to accept the notice or agree to have it listed on the notice paper. I suspect he will be advised to claim the matter is before the Court so it would not be appropriate to deal with notice until the Court hands down its ruling.

So key the indicators whether or not a vote of no confidence will succeed are as follows:

1) whether O'Neill files an application seeking interim stay order
2) whether the Court grants him a stay.
3) whether Governor General mysteriously goes on leave or becomes unavailable forcing the Speaker to vacate the seat.
4) whether Deputy Speaker refuses to table the notice of motion because the matter is before the Court.

While I'm certain O'Neill is looking at ways to derail the vote of no confidence meanwhile the best minds in the Opposition are working around the clock to ensure it is tabled.

Wafi-Golpu shutdown action condemned - Sam Basil

Member for Bulolo Honorable Samuel Basil MP has condemned the move to shut down the K5 billion Wafi-Golpu Project site by outsiders calling themselves landowner executives last Friday.

“The threats and subsequent shutdown forced by the so-called Wafi-Golpu Landowners Association Chairman Mr Holmes Kissing and self styled Hengabu chairman Mr John Nema are illegal,” said Mr Basil.

“Mr Kissing and Mr Nema are not signatories to the Memorandum of Agreement (MOA). And if they had any legitimate issues, they should be talking to the signatories of the MOA as part of the permitting process – instead of this illegal shutdown action.”

The signatories of the MOA includes the State, the Morobe Provincial Government, Bulolo District’s Mumeng Local Level Government (LLG) and the duly elected Yanta and Hengabu Landowners Executives, and the Huon Gulf District’s Wampar LLG and the duly elected Babuaf landowners executives.

Mr Basil, who is Minister for Communications, Information Technology and Energy and Trustee Delegate of Kumul Minerals Holdings Limited and Kumul Petroleum Holdings Limited, said that the legitimate landowners executives of Yanta, Hengabu and Babuaf know what is required of them in the permitting process and the various authorities they need to interact with.

“They are aware that within the SML are the ore body landowners and the processing plant site landowners in Bulolo and Huon Gulf.

“And the landowners of Yanta and Hengabu – as well as Babuafs - are very much aware that the ore body is valueless unless it is extracted, processed, shipped and sold.
“The need to accommodate the pipeline landowners extending to those on the shores descending into the submarine discharge of tailings needs to be worked out through the MOA permitting process,” he added.

“Legitimate concerns need to be brought and addressed in the established legal processes,” Mr Basil said.

“The proper way to address contents in the MOU signed between the State and the Developer is to inform and populate the MOA (before it is signed) so the State as well as the Developer are made aware before signing the Mining Development Contract and the Mining Compensation Agreement.”

Mr Basil officially opened the Bulolo Stalkholders Forum on Wafi Golpu Mining Project in Lae yesterday aimed at consolidating Bulolo Position Paper as the official position paper accommodating all stakeholders from landowners and their Mumeng LLG to Bulolo DDA and other other LLGs including the private sector.

It will be inserted into the Morobe Position Paper and inform the MOA, the MDC and the Mining Compensation Agreement.

“All landowners are important. The challenge we have is to ensure that we honestly and fairly grade the benefits to each of these landowner groups accordingly,” Mr Basil said.
“It is also important to recognise those who have helped with resources on or in their land in the past, to reward current landowners appropriately, and to prepare for the future when resources may be discovered and developed in other landowners,” he said.

Hon Samuel H Basil
Member for Bulolo
Minister for Communications, Information technology and Energy.

Time for Sir Peter Ipatas to be the Prime Minister seems today

by Bryan Kramer

Madang MP 

Today, Post Courier published a feature article by Daniel Kumbon I thought was worth sharing.

Over the next few days, the Enga Governor, Grand Chief Sir Peter Ipatas, must give serious thought to consider putting up his hand to become the next prime minister of Papua New Guinea.

This could be his time. He has been a politician all his adult life. His achievements for the Enga people speak for themselves.

The post of prime minister would be his final crowning accomplishment for Enga and Papua New Guinea.

A person lives only once and golden opportunities do not come very often.

The Opposition's impending vote of no confidence in prime minister Peter O’Neill is that golden chance.

If there is an opportunity, the governor should take it.

Ipatas has experience at all levels of the three-tier system of government in PNG - local, provincial and national.

He is one of the longest serving governors and one of the most experienced politicians in government ranks right now.

He must not miss this golden chance like Don Pomb Polye did. Instead Polye became instrumental in making Peter O’Neill the national leader.

He must now be regretting all those lost opportunities when he should have had a crack at the top job in the 15 years he was in parliament.

The other highlands provinces (pre Hela and Jiwaka) have had their share of governors-general and prime ministers.

Enga has patiently waited and hoped.

Politics can be brutal. Waiting and hoping don’t count.

The vote of no confidence is that golden chance.

Ipatas should consult with the experienced and wise Enga quartet of Rimbink Pato, Alfred Manase, John Pundari and Tomait Kapili, who are all in government.

When O'Neill formed his Peoples National Congress, Ipatas formed the Peoples Party, Pato resurrected the United Party and Pundari started the PNG Peoples Revival Party.

Meanwhile Polye built the Triumph, Heritage and Empowerment Party, that other ‘Enga hausman’.

Any one of them could have become prime minister if their political party had been more successful. But instead they spread their voices.

The five Enga MPs in government have supported O'Neill long enough.

They are all educated and understand what is happening to this country. PNG desperately needs a change of leadership to point this resource rich, sovereign nation in a different direction.

The five Engan MPs in government must move with Ipatas in one accord to prevent PNG sinking deeper into anarchy and total chaos.

They need to let the Enga people see them unite to install Ipatas as prime minister.

They should discuss among themselves who should replace him as governor of Enga and negotiate with the Opposition to retain the ministerial portfolios they already have.

Besides poor governance, law and order is the number one threat to peace and unity in Enga and PNG.

Because there is poor governance, there are unprecedented law and order problems, deep rooted corruption, cold blooded killings, illegal logging and so many other serious problems – including those in education and health - which worry the people of this country.

The use of high-powered guns in tribal warfare is increasing in Enga Province, resulting in hundreds of people being killed and property worth billions of kina destroyed every year.

Many impact projects have been initiated by Ipatas and Enga MPs past and present.

But many of these projects have been destroyed by tribal warfare and the government now finds it hard to replace them.

It is time for Enga’s elected leaders to unite and move to opposition and help Ipatas become the next prime minister.

A united stand will unite Enga and save Papua New Guinea.

It is time for Grand Chief Sir Peter Ipatas to make his move.

end//

My Response:

The Author Daniel Kumbon appears well informed on in workings of political strategy. It was no mistake that the Opposition considered Ipatas as alternative Prime Minister to replace O'Neill.

A plan that also involved rallying support from the other Enga Open Members, three of which hold senior Ministry Portfolio's which Mr. Kumbon has rightly alluded to.

For me the more important point made was:

"A person lives only once and golden opportunities do not come very often."

"The Opposition's impending vote of no confidence in prime minister Peter O’Neill is that golden chance."

"If there is an opportunity, the governor should take it."

To add to that point, make no mistake the offer by the Opposition to Ipatas will only come once.

Food for thought - famous quote by Martin Luther Kind Jr.

“Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter”

“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”

Following the article by Post Courier I believe O'Neill will put pressure on Ipatas to come out publicly to declare his loyalty to him.

While Abel and Maru unashamedly did so last week it will be interesting to see if Ipatas will toe the line and follow suit or stand his ground.

Interesting times ahead.

Deputy Prime Minister Charles Abel claims he is not fazed by the Vote of No Confidence

by BRYAN KRAMER 

Madang MP

Deputy Prime Minister Charles Abel went on record in an interview with the Post Courier claiming he is not at all fazed by the looming vote of no confidence.

“We are fully intact as far as I am concerned, Prime Minister has our support” Abel said.

My Response:

Really??? If the Government was really intact then why did it adjourn Parliament to January 2019 to avoid sitting in first week of February, which has been the practice in the past.

Government is anything but intact! The real question is what will the Prime Minister Peter O'Neill, the likes of Abel and their foreign cronies, who have become millionaires on our people's tax money, going to do to ensure they have the numbers to defeat a motion of Vote of No Confidence (VONC)?

Abel claims people gave the mandate to PNC Party after the 2017 national general election to govern.

“PNC Party got the mandate of the people and I think any incoming government after an election must continue to have the opportunity to govern. I don’t think changing governments or Prime Ministers and disturbing the mandate of the people is conducive to good governance" Abel is reported saying.

My Response:

Wrong! PNC did not get the mandate of the people. PNC went into the 2017 General Elections with 52 sitting Members and endorsed a total of 93 candidates.

Of the 52 sitting MPs only 22 were re-elected representing a return of just 42% and of 93 candidates endorsed by O'Neill, only 29 or 32% were elected.

These results are hardly a mandate of the people. A majority mandate would be returning 56 MPs and not 29.

Further still, International Independent Observers described 2017 General Election as marred by widespread violence, vote rigging and bribery declaring it anything but free and fair.

The question is just how many seats would PNC have won if the election was free and fair - perhaps just 10, if any.

An interesting fact is that Abel even lost support in his own electorate. In 2012 Abel polled 15,00 votes, however in 2017 his votes dropped to 11,000. His primary (1) vote dropped from 12,000 to 8,000.

With all Abel’s praise of the purported achievements by PNC and O’Neill Government one would think his voter base would be going forward not backwards.

The recent unrest and on-going social issues faced in Alotau suggests Abel is at serious risk of not being returned in 2022.

Now while some will say the same of issues faced in Madang, the difference is I inherited the issues in Madang, on account I’ve only been in office one year into my first term, while Abel has been the Member for Alotau for 11 years so there is no real excuse on his part.

Abel talks of good governance, well I believe Abel is confused between opportunity to govern with opportunity to steal. PNC's Party Leader O'Neill is known for everything but good governance. It is my view O'Neill will go down in the history as PNG's most corrupt Prime Minister.

Abel goes on to declare his unwavering support to Prime Minister O’Neill.

"Prime Minister certainly has my support and our PNC Party is fully intact, we are not particularly fazed by vote of no confidence, it is part of politics and we just have to deal with them.”

One would understand Abel wouldn't support a change of Government for starters, it would mean he would be stripped of his position as Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer and may end up becoming politically irrelevant.

Meanwhile, the people have to deal with a flat-lining economy, record increase in cost of living, increase in taxes, a hike in tertiary fees, little if no job prospects, hospitals without drugs, escalating law and order issues, and none payment of their entitlements and allowances, to name a few.

Another issue of serious concern is Papua New Guineans are forced to live in poverty and watch influx of Chinese Nationals, who arrive in PNG overnight, with nothing but a suit case and end up overnight millionaires on our resources and public funds, thanks to stupid corrupt Politicians and Government Officials who are only too willing to award them multi million inflated contracts.

Parliament will resume in 9 days on 22nd January 2019, if Abel is of the view it would be wrong to disturb the peoples mandate, maybe it time to ask the people where their mandate lies.

Perhaps it's time for strike 3....