The 2019 VONC – And How MPs Choose the Prime Minister.

by Bonny Kaiyo - Facebook

MPs ideally go by a measurement or standard to choose a prime minister and must leave with the decision. In PNG's parliamentary or constitutional monarchy MPs vote for the person to hold that post. In the event of a VONC the challenge is also there.

So, there must be a yardstick.

In 2016, the Opposition led by Bulolo MP Sam Basil who was then Deputy Opposition Leader to Kandep MP Don Polye navigated the hard yards to reinforce the role of the Opposition as a mechanism of checks and balance.

The PNG Constitution provides for a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister. In the aftermath of the Opposition’s failed attempt to dethrone Prime Minister Peter Oneill, the post – mortem began.

First hurdle for the Opposition. In Parliament, debates on important legislation were gagged. The government’s superior numbers helped to bulldoze legislation. But, scrutiny of harmful effects was necessary to avoid amending the legislation later.

The cost of bad legislation in PNG is clear from the example of Bougainville Crisis, fallout with landowners with PNG LNG, and now Papua LNG.

Second hurdle. In order to table a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister Peter Oneill the Parliamentary Committee on Vote of No Confidence validates the motion as a matter of process. In 2016, the Parliamentary Committee recommended among its conclusions that the motion was technically defective.

It took the Supreme Court to overrule the Parliamentary Committee’s recommendation on the fate of the motion.

The third hurdle was still there. In the debate on the VONC motion, the Speaker Theo Zurenuoc minimized the number of speakers to just 4 MPs so there were 2 each from the rank of government and Opposition.

The question was then put.

In the search for clues, here is one perspective. The VONC speech by Bulolo MP Sam Basil when he tabled the motion was seen as a weak point in the Opposition’s strategy to garner the sentiment of government MPs.

The failure to convict MPs to support the motion was only the beginning of the problem. In the 2017 NGE, the Opposition had NA on board with Pangu Pati engaging PNC ruling regime in a brutal confrontation. It was a huge victory. PNC lost 50 % of its MPs. But, was the preferred choice of the people to return to office. Of course, the issues that influenced the 50% defeat at the polls remained, money on the table.

Pangu Pati then switched sides to join the PNC ruling regime. Sam Basil looked at the PNC treasure chest.

So, the 2019 VONC is here. In economics literature Bulolo MP is the economic man. It is the rank he reached. The costs. He rationally calculated how to improve his own status defined basically as wealth he can build from access to State apparatus that flow from the choices he makes. He was first Minister for Communications. Now, Minister for Finance. https://postcourier.com.pg/marape-cites-lack-trust-prime-m…/

For now, all else including corruption allegations he made against Prime Minister Peter Oneill is forgotten. It is convenient to do so in order to maximize the number of goods he has. The fight against Prime Minister Peter Oneill since 2014 had drained him.

A statesman forever is subject to checks and balance mechanisms- testing, assessing, evaluating, and measuring- and, for him the mandate given by the people was to fight corruption and develop those characteristics necessary to complete the fight. Sam Basil became tired, put under the microscope for too long.

But, he would be a rational person making informed judgments. And, has a touch of class. May be another Peter Oneill.https://asopa.typepad.com/…/remove-peter-oneill-before-he-d…

He did not become prime minister after the 2017 NGE. But, the ideas and concepts that made him popular won. The 2019 VONC is a consequence of Bulolo MP Sam Basil’s project to offer PNG something better going forward.

Among the spin and negative reviews on Sam Basil by commentators on social media were these two(unedited):

(1) Alexander Palai:

‘Opposition will give their votes to Sam Basil. He has 16, making him the 2nd biggest group in O'Neill gov't. How many does Marape have, nobody knows yet.
We have a highlands PM who is sinking this country because of his highlands "big man mentality". Basil will therefore become the next Prime Minister.’

(2) Naith N. Lati replied:

‘Bias and domesticated racism commentary’

An alternate prime minister decided by racial demographics is irrational. But, may be the only card left to play.

The rational option is also there. If Parliament was dissolved today, James Marape and Davies Stevens will distance themselves from PNC and face the people as independents. Both behaved in a predictable manner. https://postcourier.com.pg/steven-avoids-opposition/

MPs may or may not be guided by the laws of thought that come down to 3 axioms. All data is reduced to fundamental laws as follows:

(1) The Law of Identity: Whatever is, is; or, in a more precise form, Every A is A.

(2) The Law of Contradiction: Nothing can both be and not be; Nothing can be A and not A.

(3) The Law of Excluded Middle: Everything must either be or not be; Everything is either A or not A.

It is one of the hard lessons from 2011 political impasse. The dynamics of the regime change targeting Prime Minister Peter Oneill is traced to Bulolo MP Sam Basil.http://www.pngblogs.com/…/oneill-is-no-leader-if-southern.h…

It began in 2014.

The PNC Cabinet revolt is a sign of times. Sam Basil is the man of the moment. It is also a sign of times. And, the law of thought is at play. One mistake is fatal. Ask Sam Basil.He nominated Peter Oneill for Prime Minister in 2011 at the height of the political impasse when the latter pulled off an illegal parliamentary coup. https://www.nytimes.com/…/political-impasse-in-papua-new-gu…

NA ruling regime was thrown out of office. Then, called Peter Oneill names after 2012 NGE.

He joined Peter Oneill in the wake of 2017 NGE. And, is now Minister for Finance.

So, MPs choose the Prime Minister. There are two options, the standard, 'New Guinea Style': (1) based on conviction; and, (2) convenience. But, the laws of thought define the truth.

There must be a yardstick to choose PNG's next Prime Minister. If, a VONC materializes in weeks from now.

Bulolo MP Sam Basil whipped the wrong horse to the finishing line. Pangu Pati is dead. Our Party suddenly appears from no where, cooked up. And, he is riding it without a mandate from the people to do so. https://postcourier.com.pg/pangu-pati-falling/

In PNG, the land of the unexpected anyone can be Prime Minister. Peter Oneill had only 5 MPs in the embryo PNC Party in 2011 when he was voted to be Prime Minister. Sam Basil is a one - man Our Party leader. He has become a skillful statecraft artist. The finishing line is close.

(Photo Caption: The Laws of Thought - define the truth; PNC Cabinet revolt - after 7 years at the top; Ministers fell out with PM Peter Oneill - former Treasurer Don Polye, former SOE Minister Ben Micah, former Finance Minister James Marape, and former Attorney - General Davies Stevens; Bulolo MP Sam Basil - man of the moment, another Peter Oneill?)